Research
What the numbers say
The measurements the engine is built on, written up. Each note says what was tested, on what sample, and what it changed, including the ones that ran against intuition.
Efficiency is not a trait. Volume is.Yards per carry and yards per target barely repeat from one game to the next. A player's own prior rate mostly forecasts his yards no better than the league's rate, while his role (how deep and where he is used) beat the league rate in both full seasons tested (2024 and 2025), so the engine prices touches by role, not by his results.Per-game rates, 2024 to 2026Two receivers on one team rise and fall togetherThe strongest correlation between two players in a game is between pass catchers on the same team, at +0.33. A big passing day lifts both. Projecting them as if they were independent misses that.Raw per-game outcomes, 2024 to 2026