A compass, not the map.
BTB doesn't sell picks and doesn't claim to beat the books. It gives you direction: where the volume is, how repeatable it has been, and where our number and the market's part ways. You make the call, faster and with the reasons in front of you.
BTB Trust: how much a prop line deserves your confidence
Every prop on the board carries a BTB Trust score from 0 to 100. It asks one question about the line the books posted this week: how much does this player's recent record against this exact line back it?
BTB Trust on a prop rates the line, not the player. The same receiver can score high on one line and low on another. Scores are ranked within each market, so a 90 on receptions means the same thing all week.
A market the score can't grade fairly (longest plays, first touchdown scorer, quarter and half lines, kickers, defense), or a player with too few games, shows a dash, never a filler 50.
BTB Trust describes history against today's line. It is context for your decision, not a forecast and not a pick, and it is not shown to beat the book's price.
Trust on player pages and the Players board
Trust: his expected fantasy points a game over his next four games, from his games this season with a target, carry or pass attempt, as a percentile at his position (from 3+ such games).
That Trust rates the player, not a line, and it is a different number from BTB Trust on a prop above. It is one of the three scores in his BTB Rank, with Production and Matchup. Each BTB site's Trust measures its own thing; this page defines the NFL site's.
BTB Opportunity scores: who gets the ball
Fantasy points and props follow volume. BTB Opportunity scores rank every skill player 0 to 100 on the markets that come from volume: anytime touchdown, passing yards, passing touchdowns, rushing yards, receptions and fantasy points, each with the market's own probability beside it.
Each score was checked on a season its model never saw. Where a model did not pass that check, the score falls back to a plain volume baseline rather than a model it could not stand behind.
Coverage fit: his game in their coverage mix
Coverage fit rates a player's game in the coverages this week's defense plays: a percentile within his position for receivers, a rank among the week's passers for quarterbacks. Most of the number is him, so beside it the page says how this defense moves him against an average one. It is a read, not a projection, and the page labels it that way.
The record: why you can check us
Every projection since week 3 is logged before kickoff and graded after, in public, including the weeks we missed. The record shows how close the targets and carries came, and Methods and Research show how the numbers are built and tested, including the tests that failed.
Who uses it
- Analysts: projected targets and carries with the role, share and pace behind each, and a pre-kickoff record you can audit.
- Fantasy players: projected targets and carries, Opportunity scores and the coverage each receiver faces, ranked for the week.
- Writers and researchers: matchup reports, methods and research notes in plain English, including the tests that failed.
- Fans: player pages, injuries and who picks up vacated touches, team maps and weekly research.
Member pages are Founding Analyst: $15 a month or $80 a season, or $35 a month for this site, the MLB site and the NBA site. See pricing.